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Who would England be likely to play if they reach the World Cup final?

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Who would England be likely to play if they reach the World Cup final?

England could face knockout ties against DR Congo, Mexico, Brazil and Argentina before facing Spain in the finalWho will England have to beat to win the World Cup for the first time since 1966? We can’t predict the future but, with the help of the Opta supercomputer, we can give a probabilistic estimate of what could happen. Let’s establish the “what if” scenarios and map out England’s potential route to the final.England are the top seeds in Group L alongside Croatia, Ghana and Panama. On the face of it, it is a kind draw, and the Opta supercomputer’s numbers reflect that. Across its 10,000 tournament simulations, England made it through to the knockout stage 96% of the time and won the group in 67.9% of simulations. They are the third-likeliest side to win their group behind only Spain (75.3%) and Argentina (73.0%).The supercomputer is less certain about who will qualify alongside England, but Croatia are deemed the next-most likely (77.8%) above Ghana (49.7%) and Panama (39.4%).With eight teams able to qualify for the last 32 having finished third in their group, there is a strong chance only one team from Group L will be sent packing. In fact, just 12 of the 48 teams at the World Cup will be knocked out in the group stage.If England top their group, they will face one of the eight third-placed teams in the next round. The winners of Group L will face a third-place finisher from Group E, H, I, J or K.The teams most likely to finish third in these groups are Côte d’Ivoire (Group E), Saudi Arabia (H), Senegal (I), Algeria (J) and DR Congo (K). Predicting who England will face in the last 32 is hard considering the 495 possible combinations, but the winners of Group L end up playing the third-placed team from Group K in 330 of them (66.7%). England are most likely to come up against DR Congo on 1 July in Atlanta.DR Congo have only appeared in one previous World Cup, in 1974 as Zaire, when they lost all three games, failed to score and conceded 14 times. A lot has changed since then but the omens for them would not be great. England have played eight matches against African sides at World Cups and have never lost (five wins and three draws), including a 3-0 win over Senegal at the last tournament in 2022. If England were to beat DR Congo, they would face co-hosts Mexico in Mexico City on 5 July.What a test this would be for England. Mexico are the likeliest side to top Group A (47.8%) and will expect to defeat a third-place qualifier in the round of 32. That would mean England taking on Mexico in front of a partisan crowd at the Azteca in the capital.England’s only previous World Cup meeting with Mexico came in similar circumstances, just with roles reversed. England were hosts when the teams met in the group stage in 1966, a match England won 2-0.England have faced three World Cup hosts. They lost 2-1 to Italy in the 1990 third-place playoff but kept a clean sheet in group matches against Spain (0-0) in 1982 and Switzerland (2-0) in 1954.Facing Mexico is far from a given, though. Group A does not contain any of the world’s top 20 teams so could be very open and unpredictable. Mexico are the favourites to win that group, but South Africa, South Korea or Czechia could come up against England instead.According to our projections, England would most likely face Brazil in the quarter-finals on 11 July in New Jersey. Brazil have won the tournament five times – a record no other country can match – but they have not won it in 24 years. That wait is not as long as England’s 60 years, though it’s significant.If England progress to the semi-finals, there is a strong chance they will have to beat Brazil at an international tournament for the first time. England’s previous four meetings with Brazil have seen them draw once, in the 1958 group stage, and lose in 1962, 1970 and 2002. Two of those – 1962 and 2002 – were in quarter-finals, with the last featuring Ronaldinho’s infamous lob over David Seaman from long range in Japan. A victory in the quarter-finals would take England into the semi-finals for just the fourth time.A win over Brazil could set up a semi-final with Argentina on 15 July in Miami. The Opta supercomputer projects that both Argentina and England will be two of the four teams in the World Cup semi-finals 9.2% of the time. For that to happen, both would have to win their group and then progress through three knockout rounds.England’s previous World Cup clashes with Argentina have been packed with incident and controversy. This would be England’s first tournament match against Argentina since David Beckham scored a match-winning penalty in their 2002 group-stage clash in the Sapporo Dome. It was redemption for Beckham, who was sent off for kicking Diego Simeone in a last-16 tie in 1998 that Argentina eventually won on penalties.In 1986, Diego Maradona’s famous “Hand of God” goal was followed by his superb solo “Goal of the Century” to knock England out at the quarter-final stage. Twenty years earlier, England beat Argentina in the quarter-finals at Wembley, where the Argentina captain, Antonio Rattín, was sent off but refused to leave the pitch.To continue their journey in this tournament, England may have to do something that no other team has managed in World Cup history: beat Argentina in a semi-final. They have played five semi-finals – in 1930, 1986, 1990, 2014 and 2022 – and have won them all.England have been eliminated in their last two World Cup semi-finals, losing to Croatia in 2018 and being defeated on penalties by West Germany in 1990. They have only played in one World Cup final and they won it.So, could England end their 60 years of hurt and lift the trophy for a second time? Thomas Tuchel’s side reached the final in nearly a fifth of the Opta supercomputer’s pre-tournament simulations (19.0%), going on to win it 11.2% of the time. The only two teams to win the World Cup more often across the simulations were Spain (16.1%) and France (13.0%).England faced Spain in the final in 4.8% of the 10,000 pre-tournament simulations. It would be a repeat of the Euro 2024 final, which Spain won 2-1 thanks to Mikel Oyarzabal’s 86th-minute winner. England have won just one of their last five meetings with Spain – a Nations League match in October 2018, when England raced into a 3-0 lead before holding off a Spain comeback to win 3-2. Will England avenge their Euro 2024 final defeat and repeat the success of 1966? We’ll soon find out.

Matt FurnissThu, 04 Jun 2026
Source: The Guardian
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Tuchel reveals Team GB have been helping England get ready for World Cup heat

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Tuchel reveals Team GB have been helping England get ready for World Cup heat

‘The heat is a challenge but we are prepared already’Head coach believes team can go far at tournamentHeat and humidity will be obstacles to overcome but England have full belief in their ability and can go far at the World Cup, Thomas Tuchel has said. The head coach has received help from Team GB, drawing on their Olympic experiences, and other specialists to find solutions for the weather conditions.Some of Tuchel’s 26-player squad flew from Birmingham to Miami on Monday for a 10-day hot-weather acclimatisation camp. Arsenal’s Bukayo Saka, Declan Rice, Noni Madueke and Eberechi Eze have been given more time to recover after Saturday’s Champions League final and Crystal Palace’s Dean Henderson, who played the Conference League final last week, is also expected to be a later arrival.The other 21 players, some of them on holiday in the Americas and Caribbean, will meet up in West Palm Beach to prepare for a friendly against New Zealand in Tampa on Saturday. Tuchel recognised the heat would not be to England’s advantage after a long and demanding club season.“We are not used to being in this kind of heat and humidity, and even altitude if we play in Mexico,” he told Sky Sports. “There will be a lot of challenges in this World Cup. The heat is one of them but we are prepared already.“We know the individual reaction of the players to the heat and we have cooling strategies in place. We’ve had help from Team GB and specialists all over the world to come up with solutions that help the players to adapt.“We know exactly the amount of time we want to expose them in pre-camp, the ideal amount of time that you should train in the sun and that we also don’t do too much.”Scorching heat was a major concern at the June-July 2025 Club World Cup in the US, with medical experts and players’ unions expressing concerns about heat stress, dehydration and slower recovery times. Tuchel said England were not making excuses before the tournament in the US, Canada and Mexico.“It [the heat] is a factor but it should not come across that we are already making excuses,” he said. “It’s just not in our favour and it is an obstacle to overcome.”Tuchel said he was positive about what lies ahead. “When I reconnected with the games and built our training sessions and meetings to reconnect the team in Florida with what we have built already, I saw a lot of quality,” he said. “That instantly gave me the full belief and excitement that we can go a long way.”

Reuters and Guardian sportMon, 01 Jun 2026
Source: The Guardian
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‘Happy either way’: Arsenal fans find zen attitude to Champions League final

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‘Happy either way’: Arsenal fans find zen attitude to Champions League final

Supporters filling north London pubs said they were already gratified by Premier League winThe streets of Holloway, usually bustling with families and trolly-dragging shoppers, were uncharacteristically quiet on Saturday afternoon. But shortly after the clock struck 5pm, loud roars echoed through the north London high street, located a short walk away from the Emirates stadium, as Arsenal walked on to the pitch for the Champions League final.While the team, still basking in the glory of their Premier League win last week, were in Budapest for their final showdown against Paris Saint-Germain, Gunners – or Gooners, as they are colloquially known – came out to support the team on their home turf.The Argos sign on Holloway Road was fitted with a banner after the letter r to form the word Ar-senal and pubs in the area were heaving with fans clad in red and white. The tense silence was broken mere minutes later when Kai Havertz scored a goal barely five minutes into the game.Lucy, 37, and Gregory, 48, travelled from Paris to Holloway for the final, though sadly they couldn’t make it inside the Victoria Tavern pub to view the game, which was heaving with fans. “The mood is amazing,” said Lucy, who has been a Gooner for 30 years. “We went to the Emirates and there was lots of people.” She said she connected with the team because of its strong pedigree of French players including Thierry Henry and Patrick Vieira.Gregory wasn’t too hopeful that Arsenal could pull off a double win. “PSG is a good team,” he said. Lucy did not see it as a make-or-break result: “I will be happy either way but more happy if we win the Champions League.”Issac, 42, was also waiting outside the pub, with fleeting hope that he would make it inside. He had travelled to Holloway from Ghana to celebrate with other Gunners on home turf. “It was the best thing ever,” he said of Arsenal’s Premier League win, the first time the team had taken the trophy in 22 years. Like Lucy and Gregory, he was already delighted with what Arsenal had achieved this season. “I’ll be disappointed but we’ve got a Premier League win which is more important to me,” he said.Most pubs around the stadium were at full capacity and a short bus ride away in Angel Islington, Gooner fever was also in full swing. “Honestly, I’m a mix of nervous and excited,” said 25-year-old Jack Devonport about the final, who had travelled into the area to celebrate with his fellow Gunners. Though, like near the Emirates, most pubs were already packed.He has been a lifelong Gooner. “I’ve seen everything. I was alive for the last Champions League final but I don’t remember it. I’ve seen us losing to Birmingham in the cup finals. I’ve seen the 6-0 on the Chelsea game. I’ve seen all the negatives and finally it feels like we’re at the pinnacle,” he said.When Arsenal were declared victors of the Premier League for the first time in 22 years last week, Devonport said he felt “relief more than anything”.“The one thing I’ve learned about football is that it isn’t always fair. Sometimes you can be the best team with the best squad but luck doesn’t always go your way,” he said. “You don’t always get what you deserve in football but to finally get over the line is everything to me.”Arsenal’s smashing performance this season has meant more than mere personal satisfaction to Devonport. “The last time we won the league I was five years old so to be able to watch every game this season with my dad has been massive,” he said.“To watch all the games together, to relive what he had when he was younger with his son is amazing. It’s something we’ll never forget.”And the evening began well for Arsenal with Kai Havertz firing them into a sixth-minute lead. PSG, however, equalised courtesy of an Ousmane Dembélé penalty in the second half to force extra time and subsequently a penalty shootout.There was heartbreak in the end for the red half of north London with Eberechi Eze and Gabriel Magalhães missing their spot-kicks as the French side won 4-3 in the shootout to retain their Champions League crown.

Sammy GecsoylerSat, 30 May 2026
Source: The Guardian
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