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The defeat to Brighton has scared Arsenal. After winning the league, they came out and played some entertaining football, but then that result happened and they’ve gone back to being an efficient machine. It frightened them and they've reverted to type. And the type is that they won't let in any goals, and they'll make an opportunity to score a goal, and that's exactly what they did at Nottingham Forest. I don't think I've ever seen a game where a team has that much possession and still doesn't look like scoring a goal in a month of Sundays. It was as bad as it gets. It's unbelievable how you can have that much of the ball and not look like scoring. I used to watch Arsene Wenger's teams and they would have 30 shots from that amount of play. Forest just sat there and waited to get beat and Arsenal couldn't beat them. Other teams have seen the blueprint to play against Arsenal: sit back and defend. It's not hard. It's not like they're going to make 20, 30 chances. The wingers don't go past anybody. No one runs beyond the ball. The ball isn't being held up. There's no real movement. I was blown away watching their performance against Forest. I know they won by not playing well, and that's a great sign, but at the same time I thought the shackles would be off this season and they would really start playing. Bruno Guimaraes has got to play in every game. He's the one who can pass the ball. I just can't see how they beat Bayern Munich this week. If I was Bayern, I'd just open the game up and just say you have a shot, we have a shot because there'll only be one winner. Can Arsenal outscore teams? This is a massive football match. This gives you a marker for where you are in the Champions League, because you just don't know how strong these leagues are. I like Kai Havertz. He's a good footballer. But when the Bayern Munich centre-halves go to bed, is he giving them a sleepless night? Are they awake worrying that they're playing against Havertz? X factor is what wins a Champions League and I don't see that at Arsenal. I don't see Havertz or Viktor Gyokeres as the difference-maker. It's fine when you're playing against lesser teams, but it's different when you're playing against Europe's big boys. I still see Arsenal winning the league because I just think they just need one goal. I feel Manchester City need two goals every football game to win. Arsenal just need one and they'll win. I've played for big teams and I've played for teams that weren't big - it's a different game. Eberechi Eze is a prime example. It's so, so different. He was substituted at half-time against Forest, but if he played like that for Crystal Palace, he would still be on the pitch. You've got to perform at Arsenal. You've got to play in a shape. You can't just play your own game. You can't be a free spirit at big clubs anymore. At Palace, the team talk is 'give the ball to Eze, everything goes through him and then we'll work from there'. You go to Arsenal, there are four of them. Give the ball to Bruno. Give the ball to Bukayo Saka. Give the ball to Martin Odegaard. Give the ball to Declan Rice. At Arsenal, he gets on the ball, and he's got to make things happen in the 25, 30 times he's touched the ball instead of the 100 times he touches the ball at Palace. I've seen him try to nutmeg people on the edge of his own box at Crystal Palace and lose the ball, but it's alright. That's no disrespect to Palace, but it's just different playing for a big team. The pressure is on week in, week out at Arsenal. They can win at Forest and they'll still get criticised by people like me. That's the difference. I remember Aston Villa away last year. Eze falls asleep at the far post, Matty Cash scores and he gets subbed at half-time. He started only one league game in the next two months. The lad can play. He's a lovely player, but I don't know if he'll be lovely for Arsenal. I don't know if he'll get the chance because as soon as he doesn't do well, he's off. Arsenal have too many players on the bench, so it's easy to take him off. That's the problem.

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A gulf is appearing at the top of the Women's Super League. By most observers estimations that is not surprising. Manchester City remain perfect so far, their momentum too compelling to resist as title favourites. Chelsea look formidable too. What intrigues me is how far London City Lionesses have come in such a short space of time to join them as front-runners. I don't believe they have enough to upstage Man City or Chelsea, but perhaps there is merit in Michele Kang's Champions League wish after all. Many thought this season was too soon. I still have one foot in that camp. And yet, London City are third. Five points clear of fourth-placed Tottenham, who they humbled 6-1 a fortnight ago. My stance on their staying power based on that evidence is beginning to soften. Only Chelsea have scored more times from open play. Alexia Putellas is now wielding more influence on games, albeit she started from the bench at the weekend. The consistency of their many final-third creators, even when Putellas does not play, makes for a persuasive argument. Opta's big chances created metric is probably the best judge of creativity flow in a team and London City rank top. There is a stylistic maturity to their game. The way they sweep forward with numbers and intensity can open up just about any defensive block, the forward line all combining for a wonderfully-worked opener against Everton at the weekend. Danielle van de Donk's instinctive flick to unlock the zone from which Delphine Cascarino scored showed skill and, more impressive still, connectivity. The relentlessness of their press created a second opportunity for Freya Godfrey not long after, which she buried emphatically. A squad that boasts so many attacking talents should be scoring these types of goals. There should be tactical variety and imagination. But the way Maestre has knitted all those pieces together to create a cohesive unit with clear patterns of play deserves attention. A true measure of their stamina arrives at the beginning of next month when they host league leaders Man City. There is no greater test. No doubt they will approach it with the confidence of a side that is showing rapid development and an identifiable desire to mix it with the best in the division. Of course one of the giants had to fall for London City to assume a place in the top three. That giant is Arsenal. Their latest flop against newly promoted Birmingham City perfectly encapsulated the mood around north London. They are this season's big losers. The Gunners are currently on their longest winless run in the side's history. Boos could be heard from the stands at the weekend. Renee Slegers is running out of hiding places. Her side is no longer one that plays on instinct and impulse. All their top creators appear inhibited, unable to summon the strength to break through opposition teams who choose to block rather than play. Of course that is their prerogative. Birmingham were excellent at it on Saturday. And so Arsenal lose more ground. Confidence takes another hit. 19-year-old Lisa Baum is the only player to score more than once in the league this term - as a new signing. Leadership looks lost. They are already well out of the running for the title with a 12-point gap to Man City at the top. Before long, they will be out of European contention, too. Ella Toone has long been Manchester United's poster girl. A lifelong fan, who grew up supporting the club in Tyldesley, about 11 miles north of Old Trafford. It's only right she has a place in its history books, scoring the opener in victory over Charlton at the weekend to take her level with Leah Galton as the club's leading scorer of WSL goals. Man Utd made it three wins on the spin in the process as Eva Olid's stamp continues to become more recognisable. Toone has played a big part in that transition.

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Welcome to The Euro Debrief , the Sky Sports column in which Adam Bate rounds up some of the key stories from the latest matches across the continent. This week: "When you see the first goal he scored, unbelievable," said Hansi Flick of Lamine Yamal. "This is, for me, at the moment, the best player in the world." It was an outrageous opener in his side's 5-2 win away to Real Betis as Barca made it nine wins from nine in LaLiga. There is certainly nothing outrageous about Flick's claim. The teenager's manipulation of the ball at speed is unparalleled. Betis competed - Giovani Lo Celso unfortunate to have a sensational strike of his own ruled out - but Barca's firepower is something else. They have scored 39 goals in their nine games so far, the best scoring start to a season in LaLiga by any team in 86 years and the longest run of victories to begin a campaign in 58 years. They will take some stopping and it is Real Madrid who will be next to try. Having been lucky enough to be there to see the first Clasico of last season, in which Lamine Yamal failed to back up his comments, released pre-match, accusing their great rivals of "stealing and complaining", it will be fascinating to see how this one plays out. The winger was relatively becalmed that day. One year on, and just one day before the Ballon d'Or ceremony in London, momentum seems to be with him this time. A chance for this 10-out-of-10 player to make it 10 wins out of 10 for this thrilling Barcelona side. In truth, Real Madrid were just as impressive in their 4-1 win over Sevilla on Sunday. Arda Guler set the tone with an ambitious angled finish in the Bernabeu before Kylian Mbappe danced through for the first of his two goals as he warmed up for El Clasico too. All eyes will be on that showdown but the two great rivals are still separated in the league table by the presence of Atletico Madrid in second spot. That is because Alex Baena came off the bench to produce a fine finish into the side-netting to beat Espanyol late on. LaLiga results: Deportivo A Coruna 1-1 Levante, Espanyol 0-1 Atletico Madrid, Villarreal 0-0 Elche, Real Betis 2-5 Barcelona, Valencia 0-0 Athletic Club, Osasuna 2-0 Racing Santander, Celta Vigo 2-1 Alaves, Malaga 2-5 Real Sociedad, Real Madrid 4-1 Sevilla. Harry Kane has not given up on grabbing the Ballon d'Or for himself at next week's ceremony and he offered more evidence for his compelling case as Bayern Munich went one better than Barcelona and racked up six goals in their dismantling of RB Leipzig. The England captain marked his 100th Bundesliga appearance by scoring one and setting up two more in what was a demolition at the Allianz Arena and something of a return to form for Bayern back in Bavaria after two consecutive draws away from home. Luis Diaz scored three goals and the slip-ups elsewhere in Germany saw normal service resume in the Bundesliga with Bayern claiming top spot. Borussia Dortmund do remain unbeaten themselves but they could only muster a disappointing draw away to Union Berlin. It means Dortmund go into their game against Eintracht Frankfurt next week, live on Sky Sports , still one point shy of the tally that seemed in the bag when two up to Werder Bremen last week. Niclas Fullkrug changed that and the striker pulled off another rescue act on Saturday, scoring twice to salvage a point against Paderborn. Freiburg, meanwhile, went into the weekend top of the table but suffered a 2-1 defeat at Bayer Leverkusen despite opening the scoring. That man Patrik Schick netted the winner, having now scored in all six of Leverkusen's Bundesliga games so far this season. How Borussia Monchengladbach could do with any kind of winner, from anyone. Our weekly check-in on the five-time champions of Germany reveals that they remain pointless after the latest 2-1 home defeat to Hoffenheim. New coach but the same old problems. Eintracht Frankfurt have parted ways with their sporting director Markus Krosche but the feel-good story in Germany goes on with newcomers Elversberg beating Augsburg 4-3 at home. Few fancied them to win many games but this was their second 4-3 win alone. Inter came from behind to win at Bologna and they remain top of the table in Italy but they are certainly not the biggest story in Serie A. That accolade belongs to Lazio after their remarkable 3-0 win over Juventus in Turin continued their astonishing run of form. It was already their best ever Serie A start but this was the most emphatic win yet, underlining their unexpected improvement under Gennaro Gattuso. The club had sold a tiny number of season tickets going into the campaign with fans at odds with the owner-president. But the team have been a revelation with so many players raising their level. Oliver Provstgaard opened the scoring against Juve with a glancing header, only the second top-division goal of his career, the previous having come for Velje in his native Denmark. His compatriot Gustav Isaksen scored too. Mattia Zaccagni has been magnificent. Nuno Taveres is in the form of his life. But it is true of so many. Davide Frattesi did not get a goal for Inter last season but recently scored in three games in a row. Dare Lazio dream of glory? Their neighbours Roma might have something to say about that. They remain unbeaten themselves and will be encouraged to have won comfortably enough against Genoa without the services of Donyell Malen, Roma's star striker still serving a suspension. Ruben Amorim's Milan, as they must now be known, are also yet to be beaten despite a wobble against Atalanta - holding on for a 3-2 victory. But it was not such good news for Napoli, who were defeated at Venezia - Kevin De Bruyne having a tame penalty saved. PSG briefly clambered their way to the top of Ligue 1 on Saturday as Luis Enrique continued his policy of patiently waiting to introduce his most devastating players from the bench. Strasbourg were one goal up on Saturday until Ousmane Dembele came on. Dembele proceeded to squander the opportunity to equalise from the penalty spot but then provided the assist to level it up and go on to score what proved to be the winner. Fellow substitute Desire Doue added gloss to the scoreline in stoppage-time. Such depth. Elsewhere, Olivier Giroud, now 40, did score from the spot to earn a point for Lille and there was a 5-2 win for a resurgent Marseille at Angers. But both Monaco and Rennes missed the chance to go top, losing their away games to Lorient and Paris FC respectively. Liam Rosenior's Paris team were 4-3 winners, staying level on points with their illustrious neighbours from the capital. He is enjoying a superb start there. But it is Lyon who are top of the table now, hanging on with 10 men for a 2-1 win at home to Nice. There was a defeat for reigning champions PSV in the Netherlands, beaten in stoppage-time by Den Haag. Meanwhile, the Portuguese league took a break but over in Turkey credit is due to Youssoufa Moukoko who scored a late winner for his new side Corum. His smart finish was the Germany international's first goal since joining on loan as he attempts to rebuild a career that has lost momentum since his Dortmund days when Erling Haaland was describing him as the brightest young talent anywhere in the world.

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United have just seven points from seven league matches, winning just one of those, which is their fewest number of victories at this stage of a top-flight season for 40 years. Despite extending their winless run in all competitions to six games with the draw at Elland Road, the performance was much improved, with Carrick's tactical tweaks making his side more compact and defensively solid. Neville agreed with the United head coach's assessment that Sunday's performance at Elland Road was a step in the right direction. Speaking on the Gary Neville podcast , the Sky Sports pundit said: "[There's] a depressed standard and a low expectation right now. "But it'll feel like a stepping stone for Michael Carrick, and it'll feel like the first step on the ladder in the Premier League. "They may take some confidence from that, and there might be a blueprint there. Maybe we have to bring Matheus Cunha, Marcus Rashford and others off the bench, and we might just have to have a go at being more solid." United's paltry points return has them sitting 13th in the Premier League after seven games, already five points adrift of fifth place, which was enough for Champions League qualification last season. Neville says there is no need for panic just yet but feels United have to show signs of improvement over the next few weeks otherwise Carrick could find himself in hot water come the new year. "I would say fourth would be a birdie, fifth would be par, and sixth would be a bogey," said Neville of his former club's targets for the season. "But they can't finish outside the top five, because then you're missing out on Champions League and it becomes a vicious circle. "Then you can't get those players because they want to play in the Champions League and you can't get the money from it and you've lost the £60m-£70m and you're in the Europa League on Thursday nights. "Fifth is a must for Michael Carrick to continue to grow and Manchester United continue to grow with investment. "If they're 13th in January, he's got a problem because then you are what you are. Whereas I think it's still early enough, seven points from seven games, to say, 'okay, still early in the season'. You can't say that after 15 games. "It has to change in the next few weeks: Bournemouth is really important and Chelsea away. And how he manages the games in between that. "You've got to say fifth. You know that anything less than fifth is going to be a disappointment and a dropping standard from the start of the season where everybody expected them to finish. "And at the moment, they're well short of that because you look at Brighton, Liverpool, Aston Villa - they look like they're picking up a little bit. It's difficult." Neville has seen encouraging signs from Carlos Baleba's start to life as a Manchester United player and feels the midfielder staying fit is crucial for Carrick this season. Signed from Brighton for £70m at the end of the summer window, the 21-year-old arrived with an ankle injury that has kept him from featuring until he came on in the second half of last Saturday's 1-1 draw against 10-man Tottenham. Baleba has started the last two games, at Atletico Madrid and Leeds, and brought an added steel to United's midfield alongside fellow summer-signing Andrey Santos. "I know he had a difficult season last year at Brighton, but you watch him in his first couple of games or so for United, and he's got something," said Neville. "He's got a bit of strength about him, he's got a presence. "Him staying fit is gonna be absolutely critical, I can understand why Michael Carrick took him off with 20 minutes to go [at Leeds], because he's played [nearly] three games in a week. "Maybe he doesn't play him against Como on Wednesday. We're not throwing the Champions League away, but Manchester United have to beat Bournemouth next weekend. "I just wonder whether that Santos-Baleba partnership is going to stay there for a bit, and let a couple of [the attacking players] float around in front, and be a lot more solid, make sure we're not giving as much space away. "I'm sick of Manchester United's team being easy to play against, and Michael Carrick will be sick of it." Como (A) - Champions League - Wednesday October 21 Bournemouth (H) - Premier League - Sunday October 25, live on Sky Sports Chelsea (A) - Premier League - Saturday October 31 Roma (H) - Champions League - Tuesday November 3 Aston Villa (H) - Premier League - Sunday November 8, live on Sky Sports Liverpool (A) - Premier League - Sunday November 22, live on Sky Sports

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Our top tipster Lewis Jones, aka Jones Knows, provides his analysis and betting insight for a busy weekend of Premier League action. Bournemouth and Sunderland have managed just one win between them across their six matches this season. That sort of start can change the psychology of a football match. Confidence becomes fragile and avoiding defeat can feel more important than chasing victory. That makes under 2.5 goals at Evens an interesting proposition with Sky Bet. Bournemouth's historical goal numbers might tempt you towards another open, entertaining contest. Across their last 50 matches, the average total has been 3.1 goals per game. But I would be wary of leaning too heavily on that data in this spot. After shipping five goals in a single game at Chelsea, it is only natural for a team to take stock. Defensive security can become the priority. That is where the draw becomes an interesting possibility which rows alongside a low-scoring game. Neither side has done enough so far to inspire complete confidence and a cagey contest in which both teams are reluctant to play too risky would hardly be a surprise. Pascal Gross has been one of the Premier League's outstanding performers this season. He is the player who makes Brighton tick. But he carries a serious goal threat, too. Four goals already this season underlines that point. Add the fact he is on penalties and there are multiple routes to a goal. The market appears to be anticipating a comfortable win for Brighton with their expected goal output approaching three. That creates an interesting opportunity in the player goalscorer markets. If Brighton are expected to score freely, why are we being offered 7/2 with Sky Bet about one of their most influential players finding the net? That feels large. Gross has the technical quality to arrive in dangerous positions, the composure to finish chances and the added advantage of penalty-taking duties. In a fixture where Brighton are expected to create plenty, those qualities make him an appealing candidate to get on the scoresheet. It doesn't exactly take a Tony Bloom-like figure to work out that Leeds are a bet at these prices with 13/10 being offered by Sky Bet. Sometimes the noise surrounding Manchester United can become so deafening that it distorts the betting market but the chaos at Old Trafford right now makes the odds-against price about a Leeds victory particularly appealing. This is a nightmare fixture for a United side who look fragile, disjointed and incapable of dealing with opponents who bring relentless intensity. Leeds will make this an uncomfortable afternoon where turning the atmosphere at Elland Road makes home advantage key. United have shown this season that they struggle when opponents take the game to them physically and emotionally. Leeds have collected 45 points from 31 Premier League games since the start of December 2025 - a tally bettered by only five teams. Their home form is even more persuasive. Leeds have taken 29 points on their own patch over the same period. Only Arsenal, Manchester City and Manchester United have collected more. In what is the same old story, the market appears to be giving Manchester United too much credit for their name and not enough weight to their current shortcomings. Back Leeds to bring the intensity and take the points. Arsenal remain one of the Premier League's elite defensive sides but there are signs that the absence of William Saliba is having a marginal impact on their ability to shut teams out. It is a subtle shift rather than a dramatic decline, yet subtle shifts matter when the market continues to price a defence as though it is operating at its absolute best. With Gabriel and Saliba paired together, Arsenal have averaged just 0.65 expected goals against per game. This season, that figure has risen to 0.9. It is hardly a collapse in defensive standards but it is a meaningful increase. Arsenal have conceded five goals across their last four Premier League games, too. It does suggest there may be more opportunities for opponents to find a breakthrough than the market assumes. Nottingham Forest are an interesting opponent in that regard. Their recent attacking performances have deserved more reward with Forest averaging 1.88 expected goals per 90 minutes. That is a healthy level of chance creation and it suggests their goal threat is stronger than their actual returns might indicate. At 10/11 with Sky Bet, both teams to score is the play. Arsenal remain formidable but their defensive numbers have edged in the wrong direction while Forest are creating enough chances to suggest a goal is coming. There is a disciplinary angle worth following with Roberto De Zerbi's attacking approach creating the conditions for opponents to find themselves making fouls and being shown cards. Since De Zerbi took charge, opposition teams have averaged 2.3 cards per 90 minutes against Spurs. That is an interesting trend particularly when you consider the type of wide players Tottenham have. Savio and Mohamed Kudus are dangerous one-vs-one operators who thrive on committing defenders. Savio has drawn a card every 154 minutes of Premier League action in his career while Kudus won 21 bookings off the opposition in his final season at West Ham, ranking third for cards drawn per game that campaign of all Premier League players to have played more than 1,000 minutes. Coventry full-back Milan van Ewijk is in the firing line then. Van Ewijk has already been booked twice this season, giving us some evidence that he is not immune to getting stuck in. At 7/2 with Sky Bet, the price offers an appealing return for a player who could be under sustained pressure.

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Our top tipster Lewis Jones, aka Jones Knows, provides his analysis and betting insight for a busy weekend of Premier League action. Set pieces could be where this game is won and lost - and the numbers suggest Chelsea are there to be got at. Everton under David Moyes have built a clear identity around dead-ball situations, using their physicality and aerial presence to turn corners and free kicks into genuine scoring opportunities. Chelsea, meanwhile, have developed a rather less convincing reputation in this department. They have already conceded seven goals from set pieces this season - more than any other Premier League side. And this is not simply a short-term problem. Chelsea are conceding set-piece goals at a rate of 0.53 per 90 minutes since the start of last season, the highest ratio of any Premier League team over that period. So, who better to target in the goalscorer market than James Tarkowski. The Everton defender is a major weapon at attacking set pieces, leading the way among the club's defenders for touches in the opposition box and shots. His recent record offers further encouragement. Tarkowski has scored three times across his last 15 games, including a goal against Bournemouth this season. At 14/1 with Sky Bet, the price is big enough to tempt me. Week 6 @SkySportsPLPredictions & Best Bet results:Leif Davis to score or assist 3/1 ❌0-0 half-time Arsenal vs Leeds 9/4 ✅Jarrad Branthwaite to be fouled Evs ✅Over 3.5 cards Palace vs Forest ✅P+L +3.25Season P+L +0.505/10 correct results1/10 correct scores pic.twitter.com/TArRJ9ug7m Andoni Iraola has a miserable record against Brentford, going seven meetings without a win and losing five of them. Brentford's direct approach has repeatedly caused problems for his footballing philosophy, finding ways to bypass the press and turn matches into the sort of physical, second-ball contests that can leave his teams exposed. Of course, Iraola now has a higher calibre of player at his disposal than he did at Bournemouth. But better players do not automatically solve tactical problems, particularly when the opposition know how to exploit them. Brentford have shown they can make life difficult for this style of football. Liverpool's early-season numbers also make uncomfortable reading. Liverpool have scored just six non-penalty Premier League goals, the sixth-fewest in the division. More concerning is the lack of quality chances they are creating. They have manufactured only nine Opta-defined big chances, the joint-lowest total alongside Aston Villa and Coventry. Brighton, by comparison, have created 27. Therefore, the under 3.5 goals element also appeals. At 11/10 with Sky Bet, backing Brentford on the double chance alongside under 3.5 goals offers a route in. The betting market still appears reluctant to trust Hull City whatsoever, with their long-standing underlying data seemingly carrying too much weight in the assessment of their chances. But football matches are not played on historical spreadsheets. And what Hull are producing right now suggests they deserve considerably more respect. They have lost just one of their six Premier League matches this season, against Newcastle - and even that defeat came with a significant caveat: Hull won the expected goals battle. They also came out on top in that metric during their 2-2 draw at Chelsea. Hull are proving capable of competing with established Premier League sides while carrying a genuine threat of their own. They look a dangerous proposition for a Fulham side who have looked alarmingly fragile when games have begun to turn against them. The collapses against Ipswich and Crystal Palace, having been in winning positions, are difficult to ignore. Against an opponent willing to keep asking questions, that defensive vulnerability could become costly. At 6/5 with Sky Bet, Hull on the double chance is the bet of the weekend. The market is still judging Hull on what they were rather than what they are. I'm happy to take advantage while that gap in perception remains. Manchester City are winning football matches at a rate that their underlying numbers simply cannot justify. That is not necessarily a reason to oppose them but it does make me question whether the market is giving enough consideration to the chances their opponents are creating. No team has overperformed its expected-goals numbers more than City, with the expected-points model suggesting they should have collected around seven fewer points than they have. That gap deserves scrutiny. It is not just about City's ruthless finishing at one end, it is also about the opportunities they are allowing at the other. Look at Sunderland, who generated 2.97 expected goals from 17 shots against City. Coventry also managed 12 shots in their 1-0 defeat at the Etihad. That opens the door for Ipswich to contribute to the scoring here. At 4/5 with Sky Bet, both teams to score is the angle. City's results may be sparkling in the Premier League but their underlying defensive numbers tell a less comfortable story. Johan Manzambi could be one of the Premier League's breakout stars this season. Under Unai Emery, the young Swiss forward has been given a prominent role playing off the central striker, and the early signs are that he is ready to make the most of it. The shot volume is what really catches my eye. In his last three starts, Manzambi has registered 13 shots, with four hitting the target and two finding the net. When that kind of volume is combined with a favourable fixture, the goalscorer market starts to look interesting. And Newcastle are about as favourable a defensive opponent as you could ask for. If the Magpies concede here, they will set a new club record for consecutive home games in all competitions without keeping a clean sheet (16). Their defensive record at St James' Park this calendar year is particularly damning, conceding 36 goals and keeping just two clean sheets across 20 home matches in all competitions. So I am happy to trust Manzambi's recent shooting numbers. At 3/1 with Sky Bet, I'm happy to play him to score. Bournemouth and Sunderland have managed just one win between them across their six matches this season. That sort of start can change the psychology of a football match. Confidence becomes fragile and avoiding defeat can feel more important than chasing victory. That makes under 2.5 goals at Evens an interesting proposition with Sky Bet. Bournemouth's historical goal numbers might tempt you towards another open, entertaining contest. Across their last 50 matches, the average total has been 3.1 goals per game. But I would be wary of leaning too heavily on that data in this spot. After shipping five goals in a single game at Chelsea, it is only natural for a team to take stock. Defensive security can become the priority. That is where the draw becomes an interesting possibility which rows alongside a low-scoring game. Neither side has done enough so far to inspire complete confidence and a cagey contest in which both teams are reluctant to play too risky would hardly be a surprise. Pascal Gross has been one of the Premier League's outstanding performers this season. He is the player who makes Brighton tick. But he carries a serious goal threat, too. Four goals already this season underlines that point. Add the fact he is on penalties and there are multiple routes to a goal. The market appears to be anticipating a comfortable win for Brighton with their expected goal output approaching three. That creates an interesting opportunity in the player goalscorer markets. If Brighton are expected to score freely, why are we being offered 7/2 with Sky Bet about one of their most influential players finding the net? That feels large. Gross has the technical quality to arrive in dangerous positions, the composure to finish chances and the added advantage of penalty-taking duties. In a fixture where Brighton are expected to create plenty, those qualities make him an appealing candidate to get on the scoresheet. It doesn't exactly take a Tony Bloom-like figure to work out that Leeds are a bet at these prices with 13/10 being offered by Sky Bet. Sometimes the noise surrounding Manchester United can become so deafening that it distorts the betting market but the chaos at Old Trafford right now makes the odds-against price about a Leeds victory particularly appealing. This is a nightmare fixture for a United side who look fragile, disjointed and incapable of dealing with opponents who bring relentless intensity. Leeds will make this an uncomfortable afternoon where turning the atmosphere at Elland Road makes home advantage key. United have shown this season that they struggle when opponents take the game to them physically and emotionally. Leeds have collected 45 points from 31 Premier League games since the start of December 2025 - a tally bettered by only five teams. Their home form is even more persuasive. Leeds have taken 29 points on their own patch over the same period. Only Arsenal, Manchester City and Manchester United have collected more. In what is the same old story, the market appears to be giving Manchester United too much credit for their name and not enough weight to their current shortcomings. Back Leeds to bring the intensity and take the points. Arsenal remain one of the Premier League's elite defensive sides but there are signs that the absence of William Saliba is having a marginal impact on their ability to shut teams out. It is a subtle shift rather than a dramatic decline, yet subtle shifts matter when the market continues to price a defence as though it is operating at its absolute best. With Gabriel and Saliba paired together, Arsenal have averaged just 0.65 expected goals against per game. This season, that figure has risen to 0.9. It is hardly a collapse in defensive standards but it is a meaningful increase. Arsenal have conceded five goals across their last four Premier League games, too. It does suggest there may be more opportunities for opponents to find a breakthrough than the market assumes. Nottingham Forest are an interesting opponent in that regard. Their recent attacking performances have deserved more reward with Forest averaging 1.88 expected goals per 90 minutes. That is a healthy level of chance creation and it suggests their goal threat is stronger than their actual returns might indicate. At 10/11 with Sky Bet, both teams to score is the play. Arsenal remain formidable but their defensive numbers have edged in the wrong direction while Forest are creating enough chances to suggest a goal is coming. There is a disciplinary angle worth following with Roberto De Zerbi's attacking approach creating the conditions for opponents to find themselves making fouls and being shown cards. Since De Zerbi took charge, opposition teams have averaged 2.3 cards per 90 minutes against Spurs. That is an interesting trend particularly when you consider the type of wide players Tottenham have. Savio and Mohamed Kudus are dangerous one-vs-one operators who thrive on committing defenders. Savio has drawn a card every 154 minutes of Premier League action in his career while Kudus won 21 bookings off the opposition in his final season at West Ham, ranking third for cards drawn per game that campaign of all Premier League players to have played more than 1,000 minutes. Coventry full-back Milan van Ewijk is in the firing line then. Van Ewijk has already been booked twice this season, giving us some evidence that he is not immune to getting stuck in. At 7/2 with Sky Bet, the price offers an appealing return for a player who could be under sustained pressure.