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It was Morocco in 2022, Croatia in 2028 and Costa Rica in 2014. Which team will make an unexpected run in 2026?Every World Cup needs a dark horse: the team no nobody quite planned for that disrupts the natural order and is remembered more vividly than the finalists. Morocco did it in 2022, beating Spain and Portugal on their way to becoming the first African side to reach the semi-finals. Croatia produced a fairytale run to the final in 2018. Costa Rica topped a group that featured three former champions – England, Italy and Uruguay – in 2014 before eventually losing to the Netherlands on penalties in the quarter-finals. And South Korea, who had never won a match at a World Cup, went all the way to the semi-finals in 2002. With 48 teams at this year’s tournament, there are a few candidates to make an unexpected run to the latter stages.A defence featuring two Champions League finalists, a 15-game unbeaten streak, and second place in South American qualifying. You would think we are talking about one of the favourites. Instead, we are talking about Ecuador, who have a great chance to go further than ever before at the World Cup – their last-16 exit at the 2006 tournament in Germany.Ecuador did not play in the World Cup until 2002 but they have only missed two tournaments since then: in 2010 and 2018. While participation has long been their goal, there is a growing sense that something greater is finally within reach.A new generation of players – led by Moisés Caicedo, Piero Hincapié and Willian Pacho, under the guidance of manager Sebastián Beccacece – have turned Ecuador into one of the hardest teams to break down in world football. If you are expecting the flair and risk-taking sometimes associated with South American football, this is not it. Beccacece has drilled a side built on structure and control, with Ecuador conceding just five goals in 18 qualifying matches and keeping 13 clean sheets. They were behind for just 97 minutes across the entire campaign.They rarely allow opponents to dictate terms, but the question is whether they can score enough goals to turn draws into wins. No side that qualified from South America scored fewer than Ecuador’s 14 goals, with the burden falling heavily on the shoulders of 34-year-old veteran Enner Valencia, who contributed six of them during qualifying. Nevertheless, as Beccacece himself has argued: “All you have to do is score one more than the opposition.” In knockout football, where margins are often fine, Ecuador’s defensive solidity means they do not necessarily need to score goals in the masses.The round of 16 has haunted Japan at World Cups. Four times they have reached the knockout stages and four times their journey has ended there. Japan hold the record for most World Cup matches played without ever reaching the quarter-finals (25).They are getting closer, though, only missing out in 2018 after a late collapse against Belgium and missing out in 2022 after a penalty shootout defeat to Croatia. This is Japan’s eighth consecutive World Cup appearance and there is a growing sense that they will make a breakthrough.Perhaps the biggest difference this time is the genuine belief in the camp they can do something special. “We aim to win the World Cup, so the national team is ready to play every match like it’s their last,” said manager Hajime Moriyasu in a recent interview. And his optimism isn’t unfounded; Japan beat Germany and Spain in the last World Cup, and they have beaten England and Brazil in the last 12 months. They were the first country to qualify after a near flawless campaign.This team has been refined over years. Thirteen players from the squad that topped a group featuring Spain, Germany and Costa Rica in 2022 are back, bringing experience and a shared understanding of what it takes to compete on the big stage. While injuries to Kaoru Mitoma and Takumi Minamino are significant setbacks, Moriyasu – who has been in charge since 2018 – can still call upon Takefusa Kubo, Daichi Kamada, Daizen Maeda and Ayase Ueda, who won the Golden Boot in the Eredivisie this season.Japan are in a tough group alongside the Netherlands, Sweden and Tunisia but their high tempo, relentless pressing and togetherness could take them far.When Norway last played at a World Cup, in 1998, only nine of the 26 players in this squad had been born. The current generation have ended the country’s long wait and they are not just making up the numbers.Headlined by Erling Haaland and Martin Ødegaard, Norway arrive in North America with wind in their sails. Ståle Solbakken’s side stormed through qualifying, becoming one of only two European teams – alongside England – to win every match. They scored 37 goals and conceded just five in their eight matches, with their massive 11-1 win over Moldova standing out.Norway’s attack should be one of the most feared in the tournament. Solbakken has built a team that can hurt opponents in multiple ways, whether through patient buildup, quick transitions, or wide crosses into the box to make use of their aerial dominance – Norway are the joint-tallest squad alongside Bosnia and Herzegovina.At the heart of it all is Haaland, whose 16 goals in qualifying matched the record for a European qualifying campaign. Behind him, Ødegaard’s vision and creativity provide the ammunition, with the Arsenal captain finishing as Europe’s leading assist-maker during qualification. But the side is far from a two-man show. The Atlético Madrid forward Alexander Sørloth, standing tall at 6ft 5in, provides a perfect strike partner for Haaland. And the pace and invention of Antonio Nusa, Oscar Bobb and Andreas Schjelderup ensure Norway are not reliant on a single source of inspiration.There are some reasons for caution. They lack experience – their last appearance at a major tournament was in Euro 2000 – and they are in one of the toughest groups in the competition, featuring reigning champions France and Afcon finalists Senegal. Norway’s attack has rightfully stolen the headlines so far but their defence – featuring Kristoffer Ajer, Torbjørn Heggem, Julian Ryerson and David Møller Wolfe – will need to stand up against elite opposition. If Norway can answer those questions, they have the quality to go far in this World Cup.

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John McGinn: ‘Our job is to look after Scotland’Scotland’s return to the World Cup after a 28-year absence has been immediately overshadowed by a war of words with Norway. Steve Clarke and Scotland were branded “unprofessional”, “embarrassing” and “weak” by the Norwegians after the cancellation of a training game planned for Monday in Charlotte. After the Scottish FA expressed “surprise” at the Norwegian stance, the Aston Villa midfielder John McGinn told the aggrieved parties to read up on Scotland’s injury situation.With the Scots and Norway both based in North Carolina, a game was scheduled to afford minutes to players requiring them. Scotland postponed the match on Saturday, with the injury sustained by Billy Gilmour during the recent friendly against Curaçao – which put him out of the World Cup – apparently uppermost in Clarke’s thoughts.Ståle Solbakken, Norway’s head coach, reacted furiously. “It was surprising to me and it is unprofessional of Scotland,” he said. “It is unprofessional that the coach has not called me, that they use the team manager and call and say it after we have finished training.“I don’t think the injuries they’re blaming came from the last training session. That’s not the case. It’s disappointing. It’s unprofessional. But we have to live with that.”The Scottish FA has pointed out that Clarke and Solbakken had never discussed the game in the first place, with it instead organised between team administrators.Norway’s team manager, Brede Hangeland, was as irked as Solbakken. He said: “We have been working on that match for many months. It is embarrassing to cancel it a couple of days before. We can’t do anything about it, we just have to forget about it and make the best of it. But there has been a lot of organisation, agreements and gentlemen’s agreements and then suddenly they don’t want to. I think that was weak, so to speak.”As the story escalated, a batch of Norwegian journalists made an impromptu visit to McGinn’s scheduled press conference on Monday afternoon. Unsurprisingly, McGinn backed the decision not to play the game. He said: “I would say 75% of the squad didn’t see it [the Norwegian comments]. I did see it.“Our job is to look after Scotland. Norway’s job is to look after Norway. If they have done their research, we lost a very important part of the squad very close to this camp and that had a huge impact on everyone. We didn’t want to lose another. We have had a few niggles, not everybody has been training. So I think it is a professional way of handling things, to look after No 1. I’m sure every single country would do the exact same.“Norway will be angry because they have their own plans, they probably set up for that game. But if Norway lost Erling Haaland or Martin Ødegaard in one of the games leading up to the tournament, they would cancel the game as well.”Clarke had been similarly nonplussed, albeit his sentiment was offered before Norway took aim. “It was just going to be a training game for an hour at our training ground,” Clarke said. “We picked up one or two niggles last week and decided it wasn’t worth the risk.” The Scottish FA issued a statement which criticised Norway for publicising the scenario in the first place. It read: “The behind-closed-doors training game was organised and arranged between the respective team managers – not the head coaches – and this was the same process we followed when we regrettably had to cancel on Saturday.“We have had some injuries during our previous friendlies and when it became apparent that a training game would bring greater risk than potential preparatory reward, we alerted the Norway team manager as soon as possible. We believe this was the right and consistent process.“The game was also due to be behind closed doors and not announced publicly so we were surprised when news of the game broke via Norwegian media.”Alongside Gilmour missing out completely, Scotland’s Scott McKenna and Nathan Patterson have seen training minutes managed due to minor knocks. Ross Stewart had a small knee problem before the tournament but appeared as a Scotland substitute during the 4-0 win over Bolivia on Saturday. Norway drew 1-1 with Morocco a day later.