Could the World Cup be back in the US as soon as 2038? Absolutely

Explosion in ticketing and hospitality revenue goes along with a Fifa desire to recoup lost TV income in future deals

As is often the case, it has been left to Donald Trump to say the quiet bit out loud. “We have to do this again and we have to do it while I’m around, you hear that Gianni?” the US president told Fox News in an interview broadcast in the buildup to the World Cup final.

An American bid for the 2038 World Cup has been the talk of the hotel lobbies populated by administrators from around the world over the past month, who have watched this country’s seemingly limitless appetite for major events and willingness to pay whatever it takes to attend them.

The Fifa president, Gianni Infantino, told representatives of the governing body’s 211 member associations that its revenue projections for the current four-year cycle has increased from $11bn (£8.2bn) to $15bn, with the vast majority of the growth coming from an explosion in ticketing and hospitality revenue.

A Fifa source disclosed that such has been the demand in the US in particular that ticketing and hospitality sales have gone past $5bn, with that part of the market now worth more than the World Cup’s TV rights for the first time.

“Fifa will want to get back here as quickly as possible,” said a senior figure at one of its hospitality partners.

While ticket sales have exceeded expectations, helped by the dynamic pricing and secondary market resale models that are embedded in US culture, in one crucial respect Fifa left a huge amount of money on the table, another reason it is desperate to return.

In an extraordinary deal, Fox Sports was awarded English-language TV rights in the US by Fifa without a bidding process, a precautionary move by the world governing body to prevent a lawsuit when Qatar 2022 was moved to the winter after the TV contracts had already been signed, creating a direct clash with the US domestic sports season, particularly the NFL and NBA.

With no competitive tension, Fox was given a relative bargain, paying $485m for the 2026 rights, the same as in Qatar, despite the World Cup having an extra 40 matches and taking place on home soil. For context, the NFL’s domestic TV deal is worth $11bn a year, with the NBA bringing in around $7bn.

Fox has capitalised this summer as a result, on the back of bumper viewing, with industry experts predicting it will make more than $1bn from TV adverts, whose volume and value has increased due to the addition of hydration breaks.

Having watched with frustration as Fox has cashed in, ESPN and NBC are expected to bid for the 2030 tournament, while initial conversations have also taken place with Netflix about them joining in the auction.

Netflix has already signalled its growing interest in football by buying American rights for the Women’s World Cup in 2027 and 2031, the latter being held in the US, and another men’s tournament seven years later would spark another boom.

No country has hosted the World Cup twice in 12 years, but Fifa’s statutes and recent staging decisions give it the flexibility for this to happen.

By taking the 2030 World Cup to three continents and six countries – Spain, Portugal, Morocco, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay – before Saudi Arabia hosts in 2034, a North American bid for 2038 is permitted under Fifa’s confederation rotation policy, along with one from Oceania.

Soccer Australia had wanted to bid for 2034, but after being given less than a month to formally register its interest by Fifa, withdrew its candidacy leaving Saudi Arabia to be selected unopposed, Infantino’s preferred method.

To complicate matters slightly, the North American confederation, Concacaf, is understood to have reservations about another US bid as it wants to give opportunities to other members.

Costa Rica, Jamaica and Mexico have been added to the 2031 Women’s World Cup bid and another joint endeavour could emerge, although unsurprisingly Trump would prefer the US to be sole hosts. “Based on the numbers we will be requesting it again immediately,” he told Fox.

Infantino will be re-elected for a fourth full term at next year’s Fifa Congress in Morocco, almost certainly unopposed, and then all eyes will turn to the 2038 contest.

Barring what would be an unprecedented change to the US constitution to permit an additional term, Trump is due to leave office in January 2029, which may quickly become the deadline for Fifa.